Market News and Articles

Too Much? Too Little? Or Just Right?
Monday, May 21, 2018
 The Markets  Too Much? Too Little? Or Just Right?     U.S. stock markets were relatively calm, although they finished the week lower. U.S. Treasury yields hit a 7-year high and finished the week above 3 percent. While these were notable, the most remarkable events last w...
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Monday, May 14, 2018
The Markets Splash!   How do employers lure staff in a tightening labor market? The curly tail grubs and spinnies of the business world are higher wages and better benefits. During the past decade, the employment picture in the United States has shifted dramatically. In mid-2009, 15.4 ...
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Fed Preview
Thursday, May 10, 2018
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell will preside over his first Fed policy meeting March 20–21. Although this is his first meeting as chair, Powell has been a voting member of the policy committee since 2012 and is a seasoned veteran of Fed policy meetings. The Fed is widely expected to rai...
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Data Deluge Good News - (But Not Too Good)
Monday, May 7, 2018
The first week of May brought a deluge of economic data, including the April jobs report, key surveys on business activity, and some important readings on inflation. Add in a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, and it’s fair to say that the most important week of economic data in May is...
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A Meeting of the Minds
Monday, May 7, 2018

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. bond market appear to be in agreement about the direction of interest rates

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What in the World?
Monday, May 7, 2018
The Markets  What in the World?    A lot happened last week. Some of the notable events included:  • Trade talks between the United States and China. The talks were described as “frank, efficient, and constructive,” although significant issues have yet to b...
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A Closer Look At First Quarter GDP
Monday, April 30, 2018
 The U.S. economy grew at 2.3% in the first quarter, better than the consensus estimate of 2.0%, but a slowdown from the near 3% growth of the prior three quarters.  Persistent problems with seasonal adjustment of first quarter data and a lull in consumer activity after some spending was p...
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Sell Now?
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Should stock investors sell now? It’s been a good year for stocks—the S&P500 has returned 5.7% this year despite the drop on Friday. But has it been too good? Seven-and-a-half years into the bull market, valuations are high and we see little upside in stocks between now and year-end....
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What The Market is Telling us About The Election
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Election years have historically been good for stocks, and this year has been no different, although with less volatility than we would expect during the summer of an election year. That relative calm may partly reflect that the market is increasingly pricing in greater certainty that would come ...
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Thursday, August 18, 2016
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and other major indexes have recently broken out to new highs. But this commentary is not about the breakouts in those indexes (check out for more on those). Nor is this commentary about the classic video game called Breakout that debuted in...
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A Look at The GAAP Gap
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
This week we take a look at what we call the “GAAP gap.” Currently, a wide gap exists between reported earnings and operating earnings for S&P 500 companies. We first introduced this topic briefly in our first quarter 2016 earnings preview commentary after the financial media began t...
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Value Comeback
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Value stocks have staged a comeback versus growth after a long losing streak. Based on the Russell 1000 style indexes, growth has outpaced value for the better part of the last decade. Other than the period between April 2012 and July 2013, it’s been all growth all the time since 2006 [Figure ...
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Q1 2016 Earnings Preview: No More Excuses
Thursday, April 7, 2016
First quarter earnings results will not be very exciting, but the earnings trajectory may be at a trough. We would love to say that this earnings season, which begins on April 11, 2016 (unofficially), will bring better results than recent quarters, but that appears very unlikely. In fact, consensus ...
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Market’s March Madness
Friday, April 1, 2016
The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Final Four is set. North Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse, and Villanova are headed to Houston, TX to determine this year’s hoops national champion. In that spirit, we share our own Final Four for the stock market this year: China, earnings, the Federal Rese...
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Europe — Not Enough Growth
Thursday, March 24, 2016
Forecasts for European corporate earnings have become increasingly pessimistic. Analysts have reduced calendar year 2016 expectations to just under 3% earnings per share (EPS) growth currently, from nearly 20% as of the end of September 2015. Even though European stock prices have declined, the coll...
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Will Eight Be Great For The Bull?
Thursday, March 17, 2016
The bull market turns seven. Last Wednesday, on March 9, 2016, the bull market officially celebrated its seventh birthday. During that seven-year period, the S&P 500 nearly tripled, gaining 194% in price and producing a total return of 241%. Although our expectations for the stock market in 2016...
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