Market News and Articles

Sell Now?
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Should stock investors sell now? It’s been a good year for stocks—the S&P500 has returned 5.7% this year despite the drop on Friday. But has it been too good? Seven-and-a-half years into the bull market, valuations are high and we see little upside in stocks between now and year-end....
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What The Market is Telling us About The Election
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Election years have historically been good for stocks, and this year has been no different, although with less volatility than we would expect during the summer of an election year. That relative calm may partly reflect that the market is increasingly pricing in greater certainty that would come ...
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Thursday, August 18, 2016
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and other major indexes have recently broken out to new highs. But this commentary is not about the breakouts in those indexes (check out for more on those). Nor is this commentary about the classic video game called Breakout that debuted in...
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A Look at The GAAP Gap
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
This week we take a look at what we call the “GAAP gap.” Currently, a wide gap exists between reported earnings and operating earnings for S&P 500 companies. We first introduced this topic briefly in our first quarter 2016 earnings preview commentary after the financial media began t...
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Value Comeback
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Value stocks have staged a comeback versus growth after a long losing streak. Based on the Russell 1000 style indexes, growth has outpaced value for the better part of the last decade. Other than the period between April 2012 and July 2013, it’s been all growth all the time since 2006 [Figure ...
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Q1 2016 Earnings Preview: No More Excuses
Thursday, April 7, 2016
First quarter earnings results will not be very exciting, but the earnings trajectory may be at a trough. We would love to say that this earnings season, which begins on April 11, 2016 (unofficially), will bring better results than recent quarters, but that appears very unlikely. In fact, consensus ...
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Market’s March Madness
Friday, April 1, 2016
The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Final Four is set. North Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse, and Villanova are headed to Houston, TX to determine this year’s hoops national champion. In that spirit, we share our own Final Four for the stock market this year: China, earnings, the Federal Rese...
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Europe — Not Enough Growth
Thursday, March 24, 2016
Forecasts for European corporate earnings have become increasingly pessimistic. Analysts have reduced calendar year 2016 expectations to just under 3% earnings per share (EPS) growth currently, from nearly 20% as of the end of September 2015. Even though European stock prices have declined, the coll...
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Will Eight Be Great For The Bull?
Thursday, March 17, 2016
The bull market turns seven. Last Wednesday, on March 9, 2016, the bull market officially celebrated its seventh birthday. During that seven-year period, the S&P 500 nearly tripled, gaining 194% in price and producing a total return of 241%. Although our expectations for the stock market in 2016...
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Oil, Oil, Everywhere But Not A Drop To Buy?
Friday, March 4, 2016
 Despite the modest size of the energy sector (typically less than 10% of total market capitalization), crude oil and the broader stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, have had very high correlation during the past few months [Figure 1]. In fact, 51% of all days since 1983 have seen the...
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Five Forecaasters: Few Warning Signs
Monday, February 1, 2016
  The Five Forecasters still favor the continuation of the current bull market and no recession. The Five Forecasters, which we first introduced in 2014, are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled the increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the...
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